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How likely is an American attack on Iran?
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David Harris
Plenty of experts have offered their views over the years on whether the United States is prepared to launch a military attack against Iran\'s nuclear program, but when a former head of the CIA says that is an increasingly likely possibility, it is arguably time to sit up and take note.
Michael Hayden was sworn in as the 20th director of the Central Intelligence Agency On May 31, 2006, at a time when Iran was very much a key focus for the American overseas intelligence arm.
He offered his assessment of the Iranian nuclear threat on Sunday\'s edition of "State of the Union", a news chat show on the American television network CNN.
"Iran doesn\'t seem to be paying much attention to the sanctions. As far as we know, they are still trying to get nuclear capability. If it should, is there any alternative to taking out their facilities?" the show\'s anchor Candy Crowley asked Hayden.
"It seems inexorable, doesn\'t it? We engage. They continue to move forward. We vote for sanctions. They continue to move forward. We try to deter, to dissuade. They continue to move forward," the retired Air Force general replied.
In his opinion, Tehran does have a secret nuclear weapons program, despite its denials. He maintains that Iran "will get itself to that step right below a nuclear weapon, that permanent breakout stage, so the needle isn\'t quite in the red for the international community."
That, Hayden contends, "will be as destabilizing as their actually having a weapon."
The idea that the United States under President Barack Obama would strike against Iran has largely been sidelined by what has always seemed the more likely option: that any military attack would be carried out by Israel. After all, it is the Jewish state that has been the focus of verbal attacks by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
"Israel, over the past 5 years, has been incessantly threatening Iran with a preemptive attack, warning that it would not allow Iran to achieve nuclear technology," said Iranian journalist Kourosh Ziabari.
That is a theme picked up by David Ricci, a professor of politics and American studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The last thing Obama wants right now is for the Israelis to be center stage in some form of strike against Tehran, he believes.
"That would be the worst kind of solution if there is to be any solution," Ricci said on Monday.
Hayden\'s comments could possibly have been aimed at Israel, according to Shmuel Sandler, a senior researcher at the Begin- Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
One way of reading the former CIA\'s remarks is to say that he was telling the Israelis not to have itchy fingers, that the United States is in charge of the situation and that it will act when necessary.
"The American\'s relationship with the Arab and Muslim countries is already complicated enough, they don\'t need us to stir up the waters further," Ricci told Xinhua.
SPIN?
Ricci feels that Hayden\'s comments need to be analyzed within a broader context. The American\'s, he argues, need to be seen to be saying something on the Iranian front every couple of days.
"They are scattering all kinds of threats, here and there," he said.
This could well be a case of psychological pressure, Sandler agreed, but he warns that can come with a heavy price.
"You can\'t bluff on these matters. Deterrence isn\'t just about applying pressure, you have to be able to back it up," he said.
Ricci though, points out that Hayden is no longer an American official, having retired from national service. Were his comments to have been made by a current director of the CIA, then it would be time to sit up and listen, he said.
That of course does not mean being totally dismissive of Hayden \'s comments but rather understanding that they bear no formal weight.
TIME FACTOR
Whatever the underlying reason for Hayden\'s views, whether stated out of self motivation or on instructions from the Obama administration, their message is clear. The United States is increasingly of the opinion that time is running out.
Ever since the Americans and more so the Israelis first caught wind of a possible secret Iranian nuclear weapons program, they have been both clock-watching. Every few weeks, a military figure, a think tank or a former defense official in either Washington or Israel offers a comment on just how well prepared the Iranians are or are not.
Whenever an ex-intelligence chief suggests nuclear weapons will be ready for action in 18 months, or less, panic buttons are seemingly hit in the United States and Israel, with journalists often leading the bandwagon.
Sandler\'s analysis of Hayden\'s words is that the former CIA chief likely believes some form of action needs to be taken sooner rather than later but that does not mean the Americans are ready for an imminent attack.
The Bar-Ilan professor does think it is worthwhile watching events in Pakistan and in particular in Afghanistan as an American pullout of forces from the region could happen roughly in parallel with any tactical strike against Iran.
For Sandler, the issue of timing is highly significant. World War I broke out because of matters of timing, he emphasizes. He thinks Hayden\'s message is that the time is almost upon Obama to decide whether he will continue down the seemingly unsuccessful road of sanctions and talks or plump for the probably decisive but clearly destructive option of an early military attack on Iran.
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